Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 18.308762 20.876199 23.643255 26.843321 30.438291 34.348192 38.918687
2025-01-05 14.937708 18.510468 22.656612 27.807961 34.019846 41.251343 50.289304
2025-01-12 12.678603 16.581974 21.332925 27.512102 35.304509 44.770220 57.101488
2025-01-19 10.475110 14.392801 19.372552 26.122722 34.983825 46.163262 61.271379
2025-01-26 9.559315 13.689247 19.132432 26.768424 37.129729 50.614047 69.390336
2025-02-02 8.829036 13.129364 18.986711 27.462480 39.310420 55.163205 77.832685
2025-02-09 7.946353 12.248652 18.294473 27.302812 40.251834 58.032973 84.097494
2025-02-16 7.130344 11.372664 17.513270 26.919100 40.798814 60.325594 89.616739
2025-02-23 6.566920 10.811239 17.125242 27.045871 42.041555 63.610449 96.650812
2025-03-02 6.120554 10.382395 16.887965 27.356311 43.539179 67.299692 104.412027
2025-03-09 5.667720 9.897945 16.518575 27.420252 44.640838 70.428587 111.462540
2025-03-16 5.192307 9.331176 15.969699 27.149945 45.186186 72.717736 117.321638
2025-03-23 4.852410 8.969721 15.734631 27.381608 46.560077 76.384836 125.552926
2025-03-30 4.667704 8.858285 15.899609 28.272755 49.036681 81.884919 136.910604
2025-04-06 4.292071 8.374086 15.396221 28.002242 49.578913 84.325892 143.505128
2025-04-13 3.763111 7.563483 14.267751 26.580582 48.102232 83.419924 144.633120
2025-04-20 3.614049 7.443110 14.338518 27.239892 50.177938 88.398929 155.587398
2025-04-27 3.482178 7.342880 14.434997 27.944107 52.359190 93.640536 167.196044
2025-05-04 3.239095 7.004223 14.068529 27.782218 52.999225 96.297968 174.551079
2025-05-11 2.987416 6.625522 13.597857 27.392183 53.198568 98.192944 180.663954
2025-05-18 2.821385 6.406263 13.413119 27.521043 54.336989 101.754443 189.797111
2025-05-25 2.689640 6.246616 13.331180 27.836489 55.828250 105.991123 200.279122
2025-06-01 2.539356 6.034098 13.128562 27.901468 56.846689 109.418430 209.452851